Very strong El Niño could shape warm, wet winter after weeks of abnormal heat
What do you think?
The KZRG listening area is still dealing with abnormal September heat, but forecasters are already getting a clearer look at what winter could bring.
The National Weather Service in Springfield says a heat advisory has been extended through Friday, with highs in the mid-90s to around 100 degrees and heat index values near 100 to 105.
Looking farther ahead, El Niño continues to strengthen. Forecasters say there is a 93% to 98% chance it will reach “very strong” levels from October through at least January.
There is also a 75% chance this event could become stronger than any El Niño recorded since 1950.
Southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas sit in a transition zone, which makes the exact winter outcome harder to predict.
Still, past strong El Niño winters offer some clues.
The Weather Service says 75% to 90% of them have produced above-normal precipitation across the Ozarks, while temperatures have shown a slight tendency to run warmer than normal.
That combination could mean more rain than snow this winter.
Snow is still possible, and forecasters say there could actually be fewer snowstorms overall.
But when snow does develop, some storms may have the potential to produce heavier accumulations.
The Weather Service stresses that El Niño does not guarantee a specific outcome.
It only shifts the odds toward certain weather patterns over the course of the season.
